“The price of Bitcoin is currently in a Delicate State.
On the one hand, sentiment remains cautious, with indicators pointing to a roughly 77% chance of a drop below US $90,000 in the near term—driven by weak ETF flows, long-term-holder selling, and a shaky tech equity backdrop.
The Economic Times On the other hand, bullish forces remain analysts note the asset hasn’t lost all its upward momentum, and if key support around US $96,000 holds, a moderate recovery is still on the table.
Bottom line: it’s a volatile ride ahead — if you’re talking Bitcoin in coming days, expect sharp swings, watch the support levels closely, and be ready for either a drop or a bounce.”
From a Rresearcher Lens : - some quantitative models are painting a very bullish picture. For instance, Bitcoin analyst Smithson used a quantile-regression model—which accounts for supply dynamics, volatility, and survivability—and predicts a potential cycle top near $275,000 by November 2025, under a 99th percentile scenario.
Meanwhile, academic studies on Bitcoin’s risk structure, like one on Bitcoin risk premia, argue that the market is especially sensitive to downside volatility — meaning big dips generate disproportionately large risk-premium rewards.
In short: researchers see massive upsides but also warn that volatility and tail risk aren’t going anywhere. (wikipidia)